Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Morning Line/Value Odds

As most handicappers know, to compute a morning line, a fair way is to approximate how many times you think each horse would win a race if they ran it 115-120 times (you go over 100 to account for the takeout. People like Senor Watchmaker do this all the time. So why not give it a shot here? These are a few morning lines that I'd set up based on what I think a horse's chances are in the big races. Please note these are not remotely what I think their betting odds would be, or what a real morning line should look like. Instead, view this as a "value" line---if a horse's odds are higher than I've posted them, I think they're a bargain.


Street Sense: 2-1
Curlin: 3-1
Any Given Saturday: 4-1
George Washington: 12-1
Hard Spun: 12-1
Lawyer Ron: 18-1
Tiago: 20-1
Awesome Gem: 50-1
Diamond Stripes: 50-1


Dylan Thomas: 3-5
Champs Elysees: 8-1
Grand Couturier: 10-1
Red Rocks: 10-1
Sunriver: 12-1
Better Talk Now: 18-1
English Channel: 18-1
Honey Ryder: 30-1
Shamdinan: 30-1
Fri Guy: 100-1
Transduction Gold: 500-1
Icy Atlantic: 1000-1

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