Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The Pick Six Experiment

It's time for me to resuscitate this blog, and let's do it with a long-term project and question: is the Pick Six a real long-term way to make scores?

The Pick Six is a bet that I've always found fascinating, but impossible to play simply by the shear cost. I'm not a heavy bettor; on my best days, we're looking at a max $250-$300 bankroll. And while I'll take the token four-dollar-play-for-luckiest-day-of-my-life on a triple carryover, I really don't get involved in the Pick Six too often, simply because it'd take up too much of my bankroll. If you have $300 to bet on a day, why throw $200 of it at a bet that requires you to be right 6 times in a row?

That being said, I also question whether throwing $2000 or more at the Pick Six on a regular basis is a good idea. On some carryover days, you're basically hoping for a lone hit to make it a six- or seven-figure payout. Otherwise, even if you hit on a $2k play and it comes back at $20k, that sounds impressive, but it's really 9-1 for picking six winners in a row. That seems like pretty shitty odds to me.

So is this a good idea and an economical use of your betting capital if you have it? Or is it a better idea to play exactas/trifectas heavily or (as I kinda believe) play Pick Fours strongly? I'd like to find out.

So, for the next year or so, I'm going to be using this space as a spot to play virtual Pick Sixes and see where the bankroll goes. Let's bear in mind a couple of self-admitted weaknesses:

(1) I'm a good handicapper. I'm not a great handicapper. If it ends up being a tank job, you can argue the control factor was simply that I'm not too good at picking 6 winners in a row.

(2) I have a full-time job that requires a decent amount of time and attention. So while I'd like to spend hours and hours pouring over the Pick Six like Steve Crist...that's just not going to happen. Still, I'm going to make an honest effort out of this.

(3) I freely admit to being NY track-centric to the point of a fault, so there's little chance I'm going to delve into a Pick Six not carded on the NYRA circuit. (This may be a total wash-out if they stop racing soon...let's not discuss that just yet.) I may play an occasional card from another track, such as Breeders Cup or Derby day, but this is going to be a lot of Big A, Belmont, and 'Toga.

Anyway, what's the harm? Let's see where this takes us. Bets for Wednesday's Aqueduct card coming before noon tomorrow.

1 comment:

rather rapid said...

played pix sixes for 24 consecutive months generally for a $200 play, once upon a time, generally for at least a $100,000 pot. my experience is that a rational bet takes a lot of time. anything else merely blind luck if you win.