Saturday, July 21, 2007

Racing Recap, or Why My Picks Stunk

Let's take a peek at the picks for this weekend's primary stakes races:

CCA Oaks: (1) Octave, (2) Humble Janet, (3) Wow Me Free
VA Derby: (1) Blazing Dynamo, (2) Summer Doldrums, (3) Duveen, (4) Strike a Deal

Let's now compare with the actual results:

CCA Oaks: (1) Octave, (2) Lear Princess, (3) Folk, (4) Humble Janet, (5) Wow Me Free
VA Derby: (1) Red Giant, (2) Strike a Deal, (3) Soldier's Dancer, (4) Summer Doldrums, (5) Blazing Dynamo

So what happened? Well, picking Octave right wasn't exactly an accomplishment, she was 1-2 and won with little difficulty. The problem in both races was imagining a pace scenario that didn't happen; namely, that certain horses would ensure a prompt pace in both races and enable closers to do their thing. That didn't happen at all, making Red Giant's task easier and taking a horse like Humble Janet out of the equation. Note to self for next go-around: try not to infer that there's a pace meltdown out of nowhere.

Lastly, as a note regarding the tenor and substance (such that there is any) of the blog, my writing style and analysis assumes that you know something about racing, but isn't written for someone who's a total savant in racing. Instead, I'm writing for someone of the knowledge level of my buddy Teddy from the Gowanus Rotisserie Baseball Gazette: familiar enough with the basics of racing to get it, but not quite nuanced in the details. And I'm hear to educate and discuss those very details. If desired, I'll go more basic need be, but I feel like that's just not necessary at this point.

Saratoga's card for Wednesday has been released! To say the least, the Spa will dominate posts here for the next 6 weeks. Can't wait. Coming up soon: thoughts on Saratoga prior to the meet, some things to watch, and of course, the Wednesday card in glorious detail.

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